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Year End 2012 Market Update

Blog by Gaëtan Kill | December 29th, 2012

Well we made it through another year! Tighter lending regulations (through the introduction of the new B-20 Rules in June), collapse in off-shore demand, and the global economic crisis have definitely impacted our local real esatate market here in Vancouver over the past 12 months. As predicted a year ago today the beginning of change hit Vancouver secretly when off shore numbers in our opens and showings fell dramatically whithout recovery. Somewhat secretely the market continued to support the false high price ceilling as locals began to pickup the slack. By January 2012 some noticed a change and began to negociate pricing before blindly throwing cash offers on the table- and there it began. A Steady drop in pricing ceiling set by the offshore land buyers began to fall to eventually meet a ceiling that the local buyers would support.

We have seen some very healthy adjustments in values across the board for different product, large bare lots being the hardest hit. Attached townhomes, duplexes and some condos being lesser affected. The range of prcing drops over the year in Vancouver varied from 15-30%. the sharpest drops in July and August. As we rooled through September, it wasn't that properties were selling for even less: they just weren't selling at all. the inventory was not moving at al. Buyers lacked the confidence in the market to act and were waiting for prices to drop further. And sellers, still in shok over their loss in equity, held back from putting their homes on the market or refused to adjust their actively listed properties in fear it would make little difference. and the few brave souls who put subject deals together were shot down by the banks who basically were told not to lend money by the Federal Governement (under the new B-20 Rules). Or worse yet these nervous buyers during their subject period were intimidated by 'friends' who told them 'they were crazy to buy as homes would be worth far less next year" We are seeing an 80% collapse rate on accepted subject offers. The market was at a stand still.

and then came October. Like a fresh winter wind from the north half way throughj the month, people began to show up at open houses in greater numbers, offers appeared on properties that sat relatively idle for months. Buyers were getting financing as brokers worked out the new rules, and deals actually began to firm up! Just as secretly as it began in fall of last year, this rebirth in the market has already begun and is gaining momentum day by day.
The market is exhibiting real signs of stabilization!
  • We are seing an increase in the number of visitor at opens houses
  • We are seeing more offers over the past 4 weeks than we did the previous 4 months
  • We are getting a large number of new buyers asking us to help them find their next home.
the pent up demand from a vast number of buyers who have been waiting is spilling over the dan and beginning to show up as active buyers. the active leaders in the narket are securing property at great value and will the envy of those who waited until the market recovers fully. Once the media beginns to reflect this stabilization and renewed vigor in the market, the dam gates will begin to open and the market will flood with activity. Pricing will begin to recover, slowly at first and then more aggressively as it gains momentum. this usually takes about 2 to 2.5 months before the stats are tabulated, the Real Estate Board releases them, and the media prints them.

So, this is our official alert for buyers waiting for the right time to buy and sellers wainting for renewed market to upgrade or downsize in - get your homes ready to sell and dust off your home touring shoes as we are entering a blockbuster 2013!